http://www.moskalyuk.com/blog/the-black-swan/1505 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 21:40:13 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 http://www.moskalyuk.com/blog/the-black-swan/1505#comment-726122 Douglas Christopher Tue, 04 Nov 2008 06:08:57 +0000 http://www.moskalyuk.com/blog/the-black-swan/1505#comment-726122 Interesting that this swan song caught so much attention in a crowd seeking not to be a crowd but certainly seeking "something" to fill their void - that still exists. There's nothing new here. New words for old thoughts. First, financial principles rather than correlation make money. It is really that simple - time value of money with reasonable assumptions - looking forward (not back) but using the facts of history (what really happens) works consistently. Point two is simply headlines, so don't read the papers, you'll save tome for other things. Third, there is order but it exists where the human spirit allows God to work within them. People have wanted to be something they are not through history. But that does not disporove order, it enhances it. Discipline and endurance are difficult, but not random and clearly orderly. Again, ther are expert actors seeking fifteen minutes or more of fame and there are experts. Any expert anlayst or economist that looks back at only random events can't last long. History teaches lessons of triumph and error. Leave God out and, of course you fail...duh. Point five - without the help of MTM and government sponsoed events, banks neither fail nor are they coerced into taking part in TARP. All swans are created by God. If you dismiss that...then I guess things do look random. Interesting that this swan song caught so much attention in a crowd seeking not to be a crowd but certainly seeking “something” to fill their void - that still exists. There’s nothing new here. New words for old thoughts. First, financial principles rather than correlation make money. It is really that simple - time value of money with reasonable assumptions - looking forward (not back) but using the facts of history (what really happens) works consistently. Point two is simply headlines, so don’t read the papers, you’ll save tome for other things. Third, there is order but it exists where the human spirit allows God to work within them. People have wanted to be something they are not through history. But that does not disporove order, it enhances it. Discipline and endurance are difficult, but not random and clearly orderly. Again, ther are expert actors seeking fifteen minutes or more of fame and there are experts. Any expert anlayst or economist that looks back at only random events can’t last long. History teaches lessons of triumph and error. Leave God out and, of course you fail…duh. Point five - without the help of MTM and government sponsoed events, banks neither fail nor are they coerced into taking part in TARP. All swans are created by God. If you dismiss that…then I guess things do look random.

]]> http://www.moskalyuk.com/blog/the-black-swan/1505#comment-538285 Горе от ума? at alexmoskalyuk Mon, 31 Dec 2007 06:57:00 +0000 http://www.moskalyuk.com/blog/the-black-swan/1505#comment-538285 [...] контексте описал Нассим Николас Талеб в своей книге Черный лебедь. Эксперты в определенной области редко когда могут [...] [...] контексте описал Нассим Николас Талеб в своей книге Черный лебедь. Эксперты в определенной области редко когда могут [...]

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